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I wonder about the role that opinion polls play in politics.

Let's say that a political party's messaging consists entirely of repeating "Justin Trudeau is a horrible person, and he should resign". (contd.)
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in reply to Alfredo

Alfredo
mastodon - Link to source
Alfredo
• •
Two conclusions: (1) polls measure a conditional probability that you will vote a certain way *given your exposure to propaganda*; and (2) the polls themselves influence the result of an election because we tend to follow others.
in reply to Alfredo

Alfredo
mastodon - Link to source
Alfredo
• •
Then, what are the odds that you and others will vote a certain way *given that you have seen polls where a majority agrees that Justin Trudeau is a horrible person and should resign*? (4/)
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