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CEO selling AI claims “90% of code will be written by AI in 3–6 months; 100% in 12 months.“

businessinsider.com/anthropic-…

set your calendar reminders, folks — and remember that hype is a monetizable asset (in silicon valley)

This entry was edited (2 weeks ago)
in reply to Zach Leatherman

i love that there are always consequences* when they get these predictions wrong

*vc funding

Demian reshared this.

in reply to Zach Leatherman

That is SO WEIRD because I, the CEO of a company that makes socks for dogs, am predicting that in 3 to 6 months 90% of dogs will be wearing socks.
This entry was edited (2 weeks ago)

reshared this

in reply to Zach Leatherman

it's available! start a collection of quotes that'll only age better and better as time passes.
in reply to Zach Leatherman

I'm quite enthusiastic about AI, but ... no. It would be more plausible if the claim was for AI assistance on projects, but even there, 90-100% is ridiculous.
in reply to Zach Leatherman

OK, and after 90% of the humans will have been fired, the remaining 10% will have to clean up 100% of the shit.
in reply to Zach Leatherman

Ermergerd...

It's just endless A.I. (LLMs) don't _make_ anything. This whole f'ing thing is a bad port of Three Card Monty.

"Is this your card?"

"No."

"What about this one?"

"No."

"Ah... Then it must be _this_ one! It's the only one left...!"

<sigh>

Behold the brilliance of the genericized Large Language Model!

in reply to Zach Leatherman

Consultans are extremely good at being paid to fix what they broke last time around.
in reply to Zach Leatherman

0% in 18 months, get ready for a busy season of unfucking their intractable garbage code!
in reply to Zach Leatherman

Seems like an appropriate time to bring this out:

social.thiskurt.me/@kurt/11416…


If AI was really capable of what the people selling AI say it's capable of they wouldn't be selling AI, they would just silently replace every company in the world with their own tools.

in reply to tripleman, a 🇨🇦 in 🇩🇪

@tripleman Likewise hachyderm.io/@sleepyfox/114036…


So, if it were actually possible for ChatGPT et al. to solve real-world coding tasks, for money, like real programmers do, then we would already have startups that used LLMs to do this and get paid, at scale, from Upwork and others.
But there aren't any.
This should tell you all you need to know about the huge yawning gulf between AI vendors' marketing and real-world performance.
hachyderm.io/@sleepyfox/114035…

in reply to Zach Leatherman

Perhaps the amount of code written will increase by 900%, just like all the shitty useless websites.
in reply to Zach Leatherman

Like those end of days cult leaders that have to constantly update their apocalypse prediction.

And like cult followers everyone just keeps believing.

in reply to Zach Leatherman

Says the CEO of the AI company that recently asked applicants to abstain from using AI during their application. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
in reply to Zach Leatherman

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in reply to Zach Leatherman

My intention as more like:

It is easy to claim that AI writes 100% of code if you still have a lot of humans in place to "review" (debug and fix) it.

And companies can try (and will try) to devalue that work further.

"We won't pay you a developer salary, because all you do is take code that mostly works and maybe fix a little thing or two."

in reply to Zach Leatherman

he's going to have to personally come into my home and strangle me to death to get that number to 100%. I'll be waiting.
in reply to Zach Leatherman

He'd be marginally more credible if his company stopped recruiting software engineers. 😏
in reply to Zach Leatherman

it is true if you use this formula to calculate the percentage:

percentage =
(written code) / (total available code) =
(written code) / (written code - deleted code)

The "written" code will be always more than 100% of the "existing" code.

in reply to Zach Leatherman

phew, what a relief. I was going to try to write some code for a project I've been thinking about, but now if I just wait a few months it will take care of itself! Technology is amazing ✨