Until someone creates a completely novel app idea that utilizes the Fediverse, its growth will remain asynchronous, relying on being an alternative to bigger walled-garden social networks.

What do I mean by that? Look at the Fediverse apps with traction: Mastodon is an alternative to Twitter, Lemmy to Reddit, Pixelfed—love it, been talking about it all day—to Instagram, and PeerTube to YouTube. These apps are fantastic, but the truth is that growth on the Fediverse depends on dissatisfaction with major platforms.

People move to Mastodon when they’re pissed off at Twitter. Over the past two years, though, this has slowed, with many moving to Threads or Bluesky instead. About a year ago, Reddit angered its user base, leading many to Lemmy. Now, people frustrated with Meta are looking for Instagram alternatives. Typically, they’d turn to Lemon8, ByteDance’s Instagram alternative, but with TikTok and Lemon8 on the verge of a U.S. ban, users are looking elsewhere—creating an opportunity for Pixelfed.

There’s a certain class of user drawn to the Fediverse: not just dissatisfied people, but those who no longer trust walled-garden platforms. They want alternatives with escape hatches—spaces they can leave when things go wrong. That’s why they come to the Fediverse: to avoid being prisoners of walled gardens and ensure they can exit easily if needed.

Spikes in registrations follow a pattern. There’s an initial rush of enthusiasm, but it fades as many users return to major platforms. Why? Because, as much as they hate the walled gardens, they value their social graphs. If you have a million followers on Instagram, it’s hard to give that up and start over. The metrics, engagements, and dopamine hits are hard to leave behind.

Another reason people return is the lack of feed algorithms on the Fediverse. Over the past decade, people have been trained to write for algorithms, not humans. Posting for an algorithm—like SEO—is a skill that doesn’t translate to the Fediverse’s chronological, decentralized feeds. Without algorithms, many users feel lost and go back to platforms they know.

Still, around 25% of users stick around. They take time to adjust, learning how the Fediverse works and creating a new mental map. These users become true believers, and that’s how the Fediverse grows: asynchronously, fueled by dissatisfaction with Instagram, TikTok, Facebook, and others.

This growth will continue because big social platforms will always piss people off. Every time Mark Zuckerberg or Elon Musk screws up, people will turn to the Fediverse. But eventually, someone needs to create a unique ActivityPub-enabled app—a social media idea that’s completely new, with a use case no one’s thought of yet.

The Fediverse offers untapped potential. It makes app development easier by providing a built-in social graph. At some point, someone will create something truly novel, and when that happens, the Fediverse will grow in a sustained, non-asynchronous way.