Updating talk slides so you all get to be horrified along with me at the current Starlink numbers.
There are now 7,652 Starlink satellites in orbit (>500 more than there were in February, when I last updated these particular slides).
2-3 Starlinks per day are burning up in the atmosphere. That's a lot of weird metal in the atmosphere (and undoubtedly lots of random bits getting to the ground too).
Starlink is a stupidly wasteful and dangerous way to use orbit.
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Prof. Sam Lawler
in reply to Prof. Sam Lawler • • •Satellite numbers from planet4589.org/space/con/conli… and celestrak.org/NORAD/elements/t…
Meteorite aluminum mass fraction from arxiv.org/pdf/1010.2746
Satellite mass fraction is totally guesswork because SpaceX doesn't share any useful information publicly ever.
Jonathan's Space Report | Space Statistics
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Lauren Weinstein
in reply to Prof. Sam Lawler • • •JeffreySmith 🌻🍉🇨🇦
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Elon Muksis 🇺🇦 🇵🇸 🇪🇺
in reply to Prof. Sam Lawler • • •helpsterTee
in reply to Prof. Sam Lawler • • •pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/…
"Despite poor absorption via mucosa, the biggest amount of Al comes with food, drinking water, and inhalation."
Yeah…we need environmental studies now regarding this…
Aluminium in the Human Brain: Routes of Penetration, Toxicity, and Resulting Complications - PMC
pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.govcitc
in reply to Prof. Sam Lawler • • •@Prof. Sam Lawler
Until that aluminium is implicated in some sort of detrimental health impact (a la' DDT, ozone layer, etc.), doubtful anything will be done
Prof. Sam Lawler
in reply to citc • • •Bruce Heerssen
in reply to Prof. Sam Lawler • • •Prof. Sam Lawler
in reply to Bruce Heerssen • • •Bruce Heerssen
in reply to Prof. Sam Lawler • • •@citc
Thanks so much!
Fan of Shared Truth & Empathy
in reply to Prof. Sam Lawler • • •I’m old enough to remember when people sprayed Aluminum in deodorant propelled out of cans using chlorofluorocarbons which helped punch a hole in our ozone layer ruining it’s ability to shield humans from radiation that could eventually kill them.
Seems humanity won’t be fixing the problems caused by our wealthiest who now call all the shots for ever more profit - life on earth in the future be damned.
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𝓐𝓷𝓭𝔂𝓣𝓲𝓮𝓭𝔂𝓮 𓀤
in reply to Prof. Sam Lawler • • •Launching stuff into space is EXPENSIVE.
Better to reuse what is already up there.
They should collect them, refurbish them, and reorbit them.
@sundogplanets
Fight Fascism #RESIST
in reply to Prof. Sam Lawler • • •🟥 Eveline Sulman 🇳🇱🇪🇺🇺🇦
in reply to Fight Fascism #RESIST • • •Open Risk
in reply to Fight Fascism #RESIST • • •@Yogiomm
In a world that nation states can go rogue but existential problems are global we need the (currently non-existing option) of something becoming *internationalized*, namely being operated for the common good, irrespective of national borders.
If it sounds quaint its because the notion of national state being the only legitimate expression of governance has been burned into our collective nous. But its a mere social convention reflecting a certain era.
d_ed_fran_g
in reply to Open Risk • • •Open Risk
in reply to d_ed_fran_g • • •@d_ed_fran_g
The low standing and absolute dependency of the UN on nation states is a historical (arti)fact. But it does not help solve global problems so its an obsolete configuration.
Its a matter of time though before this changes. Reality has a way to assert itself and sustainability will not happen without deep cultural and political adaptations.
@Yogiomm @sundogplanets
Kolja
in reply to Prof. Sam Lawler • • •Prof. Sam Lawler
in reply to Kolja • • •Kolja
in reply to Prof. Sam Lawler • • •Yeah, OK, that's at least uncharted territory. Seeing how we're not even able to work against bigger and easier to calculate problems, I fear that's just not bad enough.
To be clear, I'm fully on your side of the argument. But I have a harder time explaining these risks than even climate change, so that I almost wish it was ten times more aluminum…
Eric Lawton
in reply to Prof. Sam Lawler • • •It's stealing orbit from the whole planet, rather like the enclosures in Europe as it industrialized.
@bonaventuresoft
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quixote
in reply to Eric Lawton • • •@EricLawton @bonaventuresoft Stealing orbit is actually the whole point, from what I read. There are a limited number of trajectories in low earth orbit. Tens or hundreds of thousands. (Don't remember.)
That's so many, in the days when we had Sputnik and two other spacecraft up there it seemed ridiculous to worry about. So nobody thought about regulation or international agreements about how to divvy up orbits among countries.
But once an orbit is occupied, nobody else can get in there. So Musk is trying to own as much as possible by getting gazumpteen hundred thousand satellites up before anyone stops him.
(You can see the future: competitors will decide 'the hell with it, we can squeeze one more in,' and a couple will collide, with ricocheting pieces exponentially expanding debris fields and we'll have full Kessler Syndrome.)
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Cogito Ergo Disputo
in reply to Prof. Sam Lawler • • •Steven Lipton
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Unknown parent • • •@kobold
It depends a bit on when one measures; but that's about right - nearly all as millimeter-scale grains.
Which, as @sundogplanets wrote, are less of a problem per unit mass than the Starlinks are: agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.co… .
Kevin Karhan
in reply to Prof. Sam Lawler • • •Yes, and that's a reason why #Megaconstellations like it (and others as well as predecessors like #ICO) are garbage.
Not to mention #Starlink is a #SpectrumPollutant and can only serve as means to #sabotage #Fiber deployment #ROI espechally in rural areas, thus increasing #DigitalDivide further!
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Chris Hutchinson
in reply to Finitum • • •gdtrfb57
in reply to Prof. Sam Lawler • • •Erin
in reply to Prof. Sam Lawler • • •Death by Lambda
in reply to Erin • • •@ChateauErin they come down wherever. @sundogplanets has multiple threads on the adventures of finding parts of Starlink on the ground.
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2025-01-06 15:06:56
Prof. Sam Lawler
in reply to Death by Lambda • • •Siv Jones
in reply to Prof. Sam Lawler • • •Bob Jonkman
in reply to Prof. Sam Lawler • • •> Starlink is a stupidly wasteful and dangerous way to use orbit.
I never thought of 'orbit' this way before: Orbits are a scarce, non-renewable resource. One Kessler-style incident, and the whole orbitable sphere is wiped out for decades, possibly centuries.
Can't launch new satellites into a debris field. Kinda iffy to send a spacecraft through a debris field to a higher orbit, certainly not with people on board.
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Askold
in reply to Prof. Sam Lawler • • •Wulfy—Speaker to the machines
in reply to Prof. Sam Lawler • • •It will only take 8.3 years to clear the sky !
Mike
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in reply to Prof. Sam Lawler • • •Prof. Sam Lawler
in reply to James Just James • • •James Just James
in reply to Prof. Sam Lawler • • •Next version of the satellites are going to be at ~350km instead of 500+ so they will burn up more frequently.
Most of us aren't Elon fans but we hate slow moving incompetence probably more.
Nobody else did much for rockets, electric cars and internet but he's made it happen. And I was against Elon for proprietary software spyware cars while everyone was cheering it.
What's the solution please?
Michael Westergaard
in reply to Prof. Sam Lawler • • •Dustin Lang
in reply to Michael Westergaard • • •Prof. Sam Lawler
in reply to Dustin Lang • • •Fat_Farang
in reply to Prof. Sam Lawler • • •Luke Rufkahr
in reply to Prof. Sam Lawler • • •yeah this doesn't seem sustainable just on the surface.
There's also some considerations on whether its even okay to do so. My assumption is that Starlink just needs permission from the US to deploy their satellites. Other countries have access to space too, why doesn't Starlink need their permission?
Jeffandthekid
in reply to Prof. Sam Lawler • • •spacebarbarian
in reply to Prof. Sam Lawler • • •MossyStone48
in reply to Prof. Sam Lawler • • •Grumble 🇺🇸 🇺🇦
in reply to Prof. Sam Lawler • • •*Starlink is a stupidly wasteful and dangerous way to use orbit.*
Wastefully and stupidly exploiting a shared resource for profit is basically the 21st century's most popular business model.
All Your Money Now Kid
in reply to Prof. Sam Lawler • • •MMMelton
in reply to Prof. Sam Lawler • • •doctorlaura
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in reply to Prof. Sam Lawler • • •Exec
in reply to Prof. Sam Lawler • • •What
stealthradek
in reply to Prof. Sam Lawler • • •Blippy the Wonder Slug 🇩🇪
in reply to Prof. Sam Lawler • • •To throw gasoline on the fire...
Aren't we also rapidly approaching the point where Kesssler Syndrome* becomes likely?
Starlink isn't the only satellite constellation in orbit.
* cascading satellite collisions rendering orbital installations into orbiting debris fields.
en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kessle…
planetary low-orbit debris hazard
Contributors to Wikimedia projects (Wikimedia Foundation, Inc.)Bruce Heerssen
in reply to Blippy the Wonder Slug 🇩🇪 • • •The one saving grace in that scenario is that it would occur in LEO. This means that all the debris would de-orbit in a few short years, unlike what would happen in higher orbits.
citc
in reply to Blippy the Wonder Slug 🇩🇪 • • •The mention of pollution as a sign of "intelligent life", an amusement to read.
Blippy the Wonder Slug 🇩🇪
in reply to citc • • •@citc
I believe that's also the answer to Fermi's question:
Civilizations reach a point where they destroy themselves by refusing to stop shitting the bed, so to speak.
Which is where we are now.
Bruno Girin
in reply to Prof. Sam Lawler • • •In Grog We Trust
in reply to Prof. Sam Lawler • • •Have no fear, my friend.