n816 Media

2 months ago

n816 Media
2 months ago

ZAPAD 2025 military exercises: a test or an escalation in Russia's hybrid war?

The Zapad-2025 exercises (Запад-2025, meaning “West” in Russian) are taking place from September 12 to 16, 2025, in Belarus and western Russia. These are the first exercises in this series since the large-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the previous ones dating back to September 2021. (1)(2)(3)(4)

The Sulawki corridor, a complex geopolitical situation.

These joint Russian-Belarusian military maneuvers officially involve around 13,000 military personnel, a significantly reduced number compared to the 200,000 participants in the Zapad 2021 exercises conducted in western Russia and southern Belarus. This reduction is due to the massive commitment of Russian forces in the Ukrainian conflict, with Moscow only able to deploy around 2,000 soldiers in Belarus. (5)(4) (6)

The exercises include several major strategic components: training in the use of nuclear weapons, exercises with the Oreshnik

The Sulawki corridor, a complex geopolitical situation.

The exercises include several major strategic components: training in the use of nuclear weapons, exercises with the Oreshnik intermediate-range hypersonic missile system, air defense, defensive combat scenarios, withdrawal from incursions, and tactical air support. These maneuvers are part of a multinational framework involving more than twenty allied countries, including Belarus, Bangladesh, Burkina Faso, Congo, Mali, India, Iran, Niger, and Tajikistan. (4)(7)(5)

Geographical location, strategic provocations?

The Suwalki Corridor: NATO's Achilles' heel

The location of the Zapad-2025 exercises is of crucial strategic importance due to its proximity to the Suwalki Corridor, a strip of territory approximately 65 kilometers wide between Poland and Lithuania, located between the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad and Belarus. (8) (9)

This corridor is the only land route connecting the Baltic states (Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia) to the rest of NATO. Its hypothetical capture by Russian-Belarusian forces would completely isolate the Baltic states from the rest of the Atlantic Alliance, leaving only the Baltic Sea as a route of access, which is itself dominated by Kaliningrad's defense systems. (10)(8)

Kaliningrad: Russia's forward fortress

The location of the Kaliningrad enclave reinforces the provocative nature of these exercises. Described as the Kremlin's “unsinkable aircraft carrier” in the Baltic Sea, this region is home to the main base of the Russian Baltic Fleet in Baltiysk and Iskander tactical missiles with a range of 500 kilometers. (11) (10)

Kaliningrad is one of the most militarized regions in Europe, with approximately 25,000 military personnel stationed there. Its geographical position allows Moscow to control the situation in the Baltic Sea basin and influence European policies through its anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) capabilities. (12)(13)(10)

Parallels with the ZAPAD 2021 exercises that preceded the invasion of Ukraine

Towards a repeat or a dress rehearsal for the invasion?****

The Zapad 2021 exercises (September 10-15, 2021) are a worrying precedent directly linked to the invasion of Ukraine. Officially involving 200,000 military personnel, 760 pieces of equipment, and 15 ships, these maneuvers served as a cover for the deployment of forces that invaded Ukraine five months later. (14) (15)

US General Mark Milley, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, confirmed that observations from Zapad 2021 helped US intelligence services predict the imminence of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The scale, scope, composition, and duration of these exercises far exceeded previous ones. (14)

Moscow's repetitive modus operandi

Western analysts point out that the Zapad-2025 exercises, although smaller in scale, follow the same strategic pattern as their predecessors. They potentially serve as a cover for broader military preparations and allow Russia to expand its military presence in Belarus under the guise of exercises. (16)(17)

The increasing subordination of the Belarusian army to Russian military command, combined with the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons on Belarusian territory since 2023, is effectively transforming Belarus into a launch pad for Russian military-strategic objectives. (17)

Incidents foreshadowing military intervention?

Repeated violations of Polish airspace

The incident on September 10, 2025, represents a major escalation in tensions between Russia and the West. At least 19 Russian-made Shahed drones violated Polish airspace at 1:13 a.m., forcing the Polish Air Force and NATO forces to shoot down at least three aircraft.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk called the intrusion an “act of aggression” and a “large-scale provocation.” For the first time since the start of the Ukrainian conflict, a NATO member directly engaged Russian military assets, marking a critical threshold. (20)(21)(22) (23)

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky emphasized that at least eight attack drones were headed for Poland, ruling out the possibility of an accident: “This was not just one ‘shahed’ that could be described as an accident, but at least eight strike drones headed for Poland.”(24) (25)

Sabotage of submarine cables in the Baltic Sea

The Baltic Sea has been the scene of multiple incidents of sabotage targeting critical Western infrastructure. Between November 2024 and February 2025, several submarine telecommunications cables were cut, including the BCS East-West Interlink and C-Lion1 links.(26)(27)

Western authorities suspect the Russian ghost fleet of being responsible for these acts of sabotage. In August 2025, Finnish authorities formally charged the crew members of the oil tanker Eagle S, suspected of dragging its anchor across the seabed to cut five submarine cables, causing tens of millions of euros in damage.(28) (29)

These incidents are part of a broader hybrid warfare campaign, with at least ten submarine cables damaged since 2022 in the region, seven of these cuts occurring between November 2024 and January 2025.(30)(31)

The Western response: border closures and activation of Article 4

Polish preventive measures

Faced with growing threats, Poland announced the complete closure of its border with Belarus as of midnight on September 11, 2025, including rail crossings. This decision follows the announcement of the Zapad-2025 exercises, described as “very aggressive” by Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk.(32)(33)

Poland has maintained only two crossing points with Belarus since 2021, after closing most border crossings following the orchestrated influx of migrants. This new closure illustrates the continuing deterioration of relations between Warsaw and Minsk.(33)(34)

Activation of NATO Article 4

Following the airspace violations, Poland formally requested the activation of Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty, allowing for consultations with allies when a member feels its security is threatened. This move marks a significant diplomatic escalation in NATO-Russia relations. (35)

The Netherlands confirmed that its F-35 fighter jets had assisted Poland in intercepting Russian drones, demonstrating the Alliance's operational solidarity. NATO deployed Italian AWACS surveillance aircraft and in-flight refueling aircraft to the operation.(25)(20)

NATO counter-exercises

In response to the Zapad-2025 maneuvers, NATO is organizing parallel exercises involving approximately 40,000 troops from the Baltic countries and Poland. Lithuania is contributing 10,000 troops supported by 6,000 allied soldiers as part of the Thunder Strike exercise.(2)(6)(36)

Poland is simultaneously conducting the Iron Defender-25 exercise with more than 30,000 Polish and allied soldiers, demonstrating a deterrent capability superior in number to the forces deployed by the Russian Federation and its allies in Zapad-2025.(6)(37)

Polish army in 2025, source Meta-defense.fr

Testing Western defenses or preparing for aggression?

Recent incidents raise a fundamental strategic question: are airspace violations and destabilization operations genuine navigational errors or deliberate tests of Western defense capabilities?

Several factors support the strategic test theory:

Clear intent: The scale of the violations (19 drones simultaneously) and their direction toward Poland rule out the possibility of an accident. President Zelensky emphasized that these drones were deliberately “directed toward Poland.”(21)(20) (24)

Testing electronic warfare capabilities: These incursions allow Russia to assess Western reaction times, radar detection capabilities, and air defense systems without major escalation. (20)

Assessing Western resolve: As one Estonian expert noted, “By entering Polish airspace with attack drones, Russia is testing not only Poland but also the United States as NATO's main deterrent force.” (38)

Systematic hybrid warfare: These incidents are part of a coordinated hybrid warfare campaign including sabotage of critical infrastructure, cyberattacks, and disinformation, aimed at testing Western cohesion without crossing the threshold that would trigger a unified military response. (39) (40)

The gradual escalation of these calculated provocations reveals a Russian strategy aimed at normalizing violations of Western sovereignty while testing NATO's red lines. The Western response, while firm in the immediate term, will need to demonstrate sustained determination to deter future escalations in this hybrid war on the borders of the Atlantic Alliance.

It now remains to be seen whether the accumulation of Russian, Belarusian, and allied troops on Belarusian territory for these exercises will not lead to a buildup of troops on the Polish border after the exercises. Let us recall once again that this situation of troops amassed on Russia's western border following the Zapad-2021 exercises preceded the invasion the following year. As if on purpose, the 2021 exercises took place in September, four years ago, from September 10 to 16, almost to the day.

Mehdi Khouli for n816 Media

P.S. Rather than receiving unqualified acclaim for his foresight, former Milley found himself increasingly at odds with political leadership, particularly former (at that time) President Trump in September 2023. His career concluded under a cloud of political tension, ending his term as Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff in September 2023, subsequently transitioning to academic roles. The vindication of his Zapad-2021 analysis was overshadowed by his contentious relationship with former (at that time) president Trump, and President Biden issuing him a preemptive pardon. 2025 Trump administration ordered the removal of his Pentagon portrait, followed by the suspension of his security clearance.

#press #media #EuropeanSecurity #NATOResponse #SuwalkiGap #Zapad2025 #poland #balticstates #kaliningrad

References

(1) pacsto.org/events/v-sentyabre-…

(2) defensenews.com/global/europe/…

(3) reuters.com/world/russia-belar…

(4) themoscowtimes.com/2025/08/12/…

(5) en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zapad_20…

(6) nationalsecuritynews.com/2025/…

(7) indiatoday.in/world/story/indi…

(8) defensemagazine.com/article/th…

(9) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suwałki_Gap

(10) usni.org/magazines/proceedings…