The abduction of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro by American forces on January 3, 2026 openly violates international law. This operation could paradoxically provide Beijing with the moral justification it has been seeking to intensify pressure on Taiwan.

A Violation of International Law
Operation "Absolute Resolve" marks an alarming turning point. Over 150 American aircraft bombed infrastructure in Venezuela, allowing Delta Force to capture Maduro at his fortified residence in Caracas. This action explicitly violates Article 2(4) of the United Nations Charter, which prohibits the use of force against the sovereignty of a state.
The UN Secretary-General warned that these developments "constitute a dangerous precedent." The International Federation for Human Rights and the International Commission of Jurists condemned the attack as illegal aggression.
Chinese Economic Interests in Venezuela: Over $100 Billion USD at Stake
The American operation directly threatens massive Chinese investments in Venezuela, accumulated since 2007. Between 2007 and 2016, Beijing provided over $105 billion in financial commitments to Venezuela, making the South American nation China's largest debtor in the region. These loans followed an innovative model called "oil-for-loans": rather than paying upfront, Venezuela repaid through daily crude oil deliveries to China National United Oil Corporation (ChinaOil).

This mechanism relied on the China-Venezuela Joint Fund, initially endowed with $6 billion in 2007 ($4 billion from the China Development Bank and $2 billion from the Venezuelan FONDEN fund), then doubled to $12 billion in 2009. Massive loans continued: $8 billion in 2009, $27 billion in 2010, and an additional $10 billion in 2014 to support the balance of payments after oil price collapse. Venezuela had committed to exporting 330,000 to 1 million barrels daily to China.

As of early 2026, between $10 and $19 billion in debt remains unpaid. Chinese oil companies hold massive reserves: Sinopec controls 2.8 billion barrels through joint-ventures in the Orinoco oil belt, CNPC holds over 1 billion barrels, while Russia's Rosneft claims 2.3 billion barrels. China purchases over 80% of Venezuelan oil exports, approximately 400,000 to 800,000 barrels daily depending on price fluctuations. The American intervention and Trump's threat to "take total control" of Venezuela's oil sector threaten these assets and claims, potentially representing China's greatest geopolitical loss of the decade.

Late 2025 Retrospective: The Export Collapse and Consequences of the End-of-December 2025 Blockade by the US
The American blockade of Venezuelan oil, gradually intensified since December 2025, had already inflicted considerable damage on Chinese purchases even before Maduro's capture. On December 16, Trump ordered a "total and complete blockade" of sanctioned tankers entering and leaving Venezuela. This naval quarantine was accompanied by the seizure of two tankers, including the Skipper on December 10, plus two more at month's end, turning maritime transit into Russian roulette for transporters.

The results were devastating. Venezuelan production collapsed by 158,000 barrels/day between November and December, falling from 1.121 million b/d to 963,000 b/d. Critically, exports to China plummeted 77.5% in one month: from 8.9 million barrels in November to just 2 million in December. Although China partially compensated by diverting crude through Malaysia—4.2 million barrels in December versus zero in November—the shortfall amounts to approximately 6.9 million barrels for December alone.

Despite Beijing's diplomatic protests before January 3, Chinese imports had reached a December 2025 average of 600,000 barrels/day, already reduced over 50% compared to 1.3 million b/d in September-October. For China—a global importer of 8.2 million barrels/day—this loss of 600,000 b/d represents a 7.3% reduction in crude supply. Although Venezuela accounts for only 4-5% of China's oil imports, the independent "teapot refiners" (approximately six small refineries) that are the main buyers of Merey crude (a type of heavy crude oil produced primarily in Venezuela, extracted from the Orinoco Belt oil fields, one of the world's largest petroleum reserves) experienced major disruption. The likelihood of complete suppression of Chinese exports under direct American control renders this "energy insurance policy" completely illusory.

China's Current Reaction: Between Condemnation and Opportunism
Beijing officially declared itself "deeply shocked." But on Chinese social media, the reaction reveals a far more troubling dimension. On Weibo, discussions generated over 440 million views, with many users calling on Beijing to employ similar tactics against Taiwan. "Since the United States doesn't take international law seriously, why should we?"

Taiwan: Growing Anxiety
In Taipei, the operation triggered intense debate about the island's vulnerability to a similar Chinese "decapitation" operation. Security experts warn Taipei not to dismiss such a possibility as China perfects its ability to rapidly pivot from military exercises to real operations.

An "Involuntary" Green Light
Three key elements weaken Washington's moral position regarding Taiwan:
- Erosion of Norms: The operation demonstrates that military power trumps international law. This precedent undermines the sovereignty principles the United States invokes to defend Taiwan.
- Double Standard Argument: China can now point to American hypocrisy. If Washington can bomb a sovereign nation, why couldn't Beijing act against Taiwan, which it considers a rebellious province?
- Weakening Deterrence: Maduro's capture despite his alignment with Beijing raises questions about Washington's ability to truly deter China.

Nuances: Fundamental Differences
Richard Bush, former president of the American Institute in Taiwan, emphasizes that circumstances between Venezuela and Taiwan differ. Neil Thomas, researcher at the Asia Society, contends that China is unlikely to cite Venezuela as precedent, preferring to present itself as a responsible actor.

The Verdict: Counterproductive Diplomacy
The UN Security Council's likely inability to condemn the United States will send a clear signal: international law binds only the weak. Beijing will not miss this message.

The American operation in Venezuela constitutes an extremely short-sighted strategic miscalculation. By demonstrating that Washington openly violates international law, the Trump administration undermines the normative arguments underpinning its defense of Taiwan.

As Milena Sterio, professor at Cleveland State University, stated: "If the United States can engage in a blockade against a sovereign nation, then countries like China can certainly use the same reasoning to organize blockades against Taiwan." Worse still, the Venezuelan precedent provides Beijing justification for crossing the threshold into armed military intervention. If Washington can conduct "decapitation" operations to overthrow leaders deemed hostile, why couldn't China act militarily against Taiwan, which it considers a rebellious province? The operational model has just been validated by the world's greatest military power.

Whether both, neither, or something else—the near future will tell.

• Mehdi Khouli for n816 Media
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